General Election 2010 Roundup

Well, I held off from commenting too much until I could see the full results right across Northern Ireland - delayed due to the recounts in the Fermanagh South Tyrone constituency which ended up being the smallest majority of 4 votes.

On the unionist side, it looks like the leaders are in trouble - Peter Robinson, Sir Reg Empey,and Jim Allister. Let's look at them in reverse order. Jim Allister, leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) had been promising so much, looking to defeat Ian Paisley Junior (who was standing in his retiring father's constituency of North Antrim), and taking a considerable proportion of votes from discouraged DUP voters in the ten constituencies they were standing candidates. Perhaps buoyed by hopes of building on the impressive 13.7% of votes cast in the 2009 European Election.

However, the TUV vote entirely collapsed, with 40,000 voters either not turning out, or giving their votes to another party, leaving the TUV with just 3.9% of votes cast across Northern Ireland. It's not satisfactory to say that the other 8 constituencies would have boosted the TUV figures - there's no way they could account for the other 40,000 missing voters.

So where does this leave the TUV? Jim Allister is probably likely to win a seat in the Assembly election to be held next year, and probably some local government seats in Councils, but the TUV is certainly not a mainstream or viable political party. It appears that most of the unionist population is accepting the current power-sharing arrangements at Stormont, and don't want to see what Jim Allister has been arguing for. While they may hold on, it looks as if the TUV won't be around for much longer.

Reg Empey's position as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party may also be in danger, following the poor showing at the election, both personally and nationally. Empey tackled Willie McCrea in South Antrim, and while coming just over a thousand votes behind McCrea, it wasn't good enough. Nationally, the situation was just as grim - having lost their only MP as a result of the Conservative linkup, the UUP/UCUNF had to take at least one seat to keep the figures balanced, but utterly failed. Indeed, Empey came the closest to winning a seat - most of the other candidates being roughly 4000 - 6000 votes behind the DUP in each of the constituencies the DUP won. For what was at one time the only unionist party to now receive just 15.2% of the total votes cast (far behind the DUP at 25%), the writing appears to be on the wall for Empey's leadership. Indeed, for them, the biggest show in town is now Stormont, for which planning and effective leadership will be needed if they are to survive the onslaught of the next Assembly election in 2011.

Meanwhile, although the DUP performed well across Northern Ireland, Peter Robinson himself appears to be weakened as party leader having been unseated by the Alliance candidate in East Belfast, Naomi Long. Despite him claiming he had not wished to run for election to Westminster, it seems that Robinson had been seeking to have an exception for himself to maintain his dual mandate, at least for the lifetime of this parliament, so that the party leader could be in both Westminster and Stormont.

Naomi Long has relieved him of the pressure of being in two places at once, but it leaves a problem for Robinson and the DUP. Where should the party leader now be working? At Westminster - so that Robinson will have to be deposed, or at Stormont, so that Robinson can continue to be party leader and First Minister. The problems are perhaps enhanced when facing the Assembly election next year with the knowledge that the DUP had changed the rules (at St Andrews) to ensure that the biggest party, not the biggest designation could nominate the First Minister (with cross-community support). Taking this election as an indicator of next year, that would leave Sinn Fein as the biggest party, and the possibility of Martin McGuiness as First Minister.

The question is - if unionist unity is being bandied about, to form a united unionist party made up of the DUP and the UUP, could Robinson lead it? Or would a new leader for the movement need to be found? Could we see Arlene Foster becoming the leader of united unionism? Would that be acceptable to her former colleagues in the UUP, whom she left to join the DUP? Certainly if the unionists are seeking to prevent McGuiness being First Minister, something will need to be done. But then, it's democracy, isn't it?

On the nationalist/republican side, Sinn Fein continued their dominance, winning 25.5% of the vote, compared to the 16.5% for the SDLP. Each party retained the seats it entered the election with - Margaret Ritchie successfully holding off the challenge of Catriona Ruane in South Down (possibly due to many tactical votes from unionists). Both parties will therefore be confident heading into the next elections.

Alliance have perhaps reached their peak already in winning the East Belfast seat through Naomi Long - I think this is probably a one off which won't be repeated elsewhere in Northern Ireland, resulting from much hard work by Long over many years, helped by some tactical voting from unionists and nationalists in the constituency. The question is, of course, if the UK government coalition falters and another election is held in six months, could Long retain the seat against the challenge of (perhaps) another DUP candidate who isn't Peter Robinson? Or will her incumbency be a brief one?

All in all, Northern Ireland's 2010 election was exciting due to the challenges and changes across the province. It will also be remembered for the uncertainty of the overall government, and David Cameron's search for a coalition partner in the Lib-Dems. Even now, things aren't clear if it will all work out. Time will tell.

Polling Day

Well, the much awaited General Election has arrived, and polls have been open for over 4 hours already. There are now just over ten and a half hours left to cast your vote. It's certainly not my place to tell you how to vote, but it is my place to say you should vote!

At some point over the next few days I'll have a think about what the results might mean and do some analysis - just so that my degree in Politics from Queens wasn't completely wasted!

General Election: Second Round

Following the first review of most of the candidates' election communications for the constituency of East Belfast in tomorrow's General Election, a second round of election communications have arrived. This time, though, we'll deal with them all in one fell swoop, with new things or heightened emphases as polling day quickly approaches.

Naomi Long: Alliance

Naomi's second communication (this time addressed to me) is much bigger, but seems to contain much of the same information, just in bigger text boxes and bigger photos. On the plus side, she answers the nagging question from the first leaflet of double or triple jobbing, with a pledge that 'if elected to Westminster, she has committed to stand down from the Assembly to ensure that East Belfast has full-time representation in Parliament.' On the down side, she is still perpetuating the 'spin' on election results from the 2007 Assembly election, presenting herself as just 52 votes behind Peter Robinson (while neglecting to admit the huge distance between Alliance and both the UUP and the DUP). She now has included Facebook information, so a plus one for social media!

Trevor Ringland: Conservatives and Unionists

We've received two further communications from the Unionists. The first had much the same material, with a few more photos from Trevor's day out in East Belfast, at some new locations - including the reconciliation statue in Stormont Estate. In this communication he also now comes out in favour of the public inquiry into the City Airport runway extension. Sadly, though, it's hard to look past a couple of clangers - what Mark Devenport has been calling the Spellection: on writing about the importance of tourism in East Belfast, Ringland says 'From the Titanic quarters to Parliament buildings...' (Have we more than one Titanic Quarter now? Maybe that's why it's all so expensive...); and the worst clanger, 'Nothen Ireland'.

His second election communication contained a personal message from Trevor Ringland, addressed to my wife. (Should I be worried?) Ringland is coming out fighting, mainly against the Alliance Party, as he says: 'Trevor Ringland is the only candidate who can win this seat from Robinson. The figures speak for themselves. Alliance has always trailed in third. Every vote counts in this election, and with your support, we can put an end to the neglect of East Belfast at Westminster. A vote for Alliance in a vote for Robinson.' At least he is arguing on the basis of fact on the election results. On the plus side, we actually see that he has a change of clothes, with photos of him wearing something other than the outfit he wore for every photo on the first two election leaflets!

Peter Robinson: Democratic Unionist Party

In his final election communication, Peter Robinson is firmly attacking his unionist opponents - perhaps this is where he sees the battle most fiercely fought, rather than against Alliance (sorry Naomi). There are lots of photos of Robinson in various places and situations - a DUP rally, a primary school, visiting a centenarian, with the Orange Order, with troops in Iraq (?) or Afghanistan (?), with Barack Obama, in Parliament, on a building site, and with Citizens' Advice.

There are sections against the UUP/Conservative link up, as well as against the TUV, appealing for unionist unity. However it is on the back page that Robinson becomes his most vitriolic, and perhaps even applies some double standards. He is trying to argue that he is the only local unionist worthy of being elected, and so he writes:

'Peter Robinson lives in the constituency - his unionist opponents live outside the area, one as far away as County Armagh... Peter Robinson knows East Belfast and its people - some of his opponents are tourists and would need Sat Nav to find their way about the area.'

There are several factors about what he has said here:

1. Peter Robinson has only just been moved back into the constituency - he couldn't have said that if Dundonald hadn't been shifted from Strangford to East Belfast again, which would indicate that prior to this election, he wasn't himself in the constituency.

2. There is no legal barrier on anyone living outside a constituency standing for election, nor no residency condition.

3. Is Peter Robinson and the DUP applying this standard for its other candidates? After all, Willie McCrea lives in the Mid-Ulster constituency but is standing in South Antrim, and, as a prime example of double standards, Nigel Dodds, standing in North Belfast, lives as far from that constituency in a provincial town as David Vance does from East Belfast. Should Nigel Dodds therefore not be standing in North Belfast and a local resident be up there instead? Or are the DUP exercising double standards in this attack on its opponents?

The election communications have now been printed and distributed. It's almost time for the x to be crossed and votes cast. This time round, Northern Ireland votes will be counted virtually as soon as polls close at 10pm, rather than the next day. I'm still debating whether I should sit up for a while to watch the results as they come in, or go on to my bed. Any ideas?

General Election: Vote TUV?

In the fifth of our General Election communications review for the constituency of East Belfast, we turn to the newest unionist party on the block, Traditional Unionist Voice, and their candidate David Vance.

With a huge picture of himself on the front, the communication weighs in as a 4 page A4 glossy booklet, with plenty of information on his views, and the wider political issues. However, it is clear that the TUV is seeking to fight its major battle against the dominance of the DUP, having come out from the wings of the DUP (led by Jim Allister) in the aftermath of that party joining the powersharing executive as equal partners with Sinn Fein.

To that end, in the 14 text boxes found throughout the leaflet, 10 of them contain a direct reference to either the DUP or some member of the party, always in a negative connection (unsurprisingly, of course!). Particularly in focus is the person and work of Peter Robinson, with the figures of his (and Iris') expense claims from the last Parliament being quoted several times, as well as the connections between the DUP an Sinn Fein in the Assembly.

The other four text boxes, while not directly referring to the DUP are clearly written with them in mind, seeking to present the TUV as the party able to provide fulltime representation at Westminster, and the party who will not break their election promises (nudge, nudge).

Interestingly, there's also a section on addressing controversial issues of sovereignty (opposing the Lisbon Treaty and calling for a referendum), immigration (using a points system for skilled workers rather than an open door policy), and climate change (which is as a result of 'suspect science').

On the use of photos, it seems strange that Peter Robinson features in as many photographs on David Vance's literature as David Vance does himself - three times each. Now obviously the photos are carefully chosen to maximise the potential damage to Robinson and boost the Vance campaign - so we see Peter Robinson smiling alongside the box alleging that the Robinsons were operating a 'who wants to be a millionaire political lifestyle'; Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness alongside the text arguing that Stormont is a shambles because of the mandatory coalition; and that infamous shot of Peter at his desk and Iris in a full head-back cackle of a laugh which sits beside a call for voters to say 'no to scandal and sleaze.'

So much for the content. Anything to say about what is said? Well, there's no mention of David Vance's previous membership of the Bob McCartney UKUP (who?), and it does seem that most of the arguments are (again) on issues connected to Stormont, and not Westminster - for which this election has been called. You almost get the feeling that these leaflets could be reused at the next Assembly election without alteration - except that one sentence needs to be changed to make some sense.

'If you expect better then vote for a man who'll be there do the job - vote Vance x.'

I really do expect better - someone 'to' do the job of proofreading, never mind representing East Belfast!

Once again, there's no reference to social media, but there is a website specifically for the campaign, which has a live twitter feed for his campaign.

It's hard to know how the result will turn out - perhaps the rage at Peter Robinson's performance in the past will be raised and focused by this election communication, and Vance can turn enough people to win the seat. I just don't know.

David Cameron's Deadline

I've just watched David Cameron address a gathering of the Conservative Party faithful following the third and final Prime Ministerial Debate on UK television. He was saying that the workers have a message of change to communicate and take to every corner of the country. There's now less than one week until polling finishes in the General Election, so he's well aware of the deadline and shortness of time. Hence he said:

'Don't waste one minute; don't waste one hour; work to get the message out before the time ends.'

Well, the party workers nodded and clapped and left to get on with the job. If only we as Christians would similarly be motivated by the shortness of the time, and were using every opportunity and every day. Or as the apostle Paul says:

5 Walk in wisdom toward outsiders, making the best use of the time. 6 Let your speech always be gracious, seasoned with salt, so that you may know how you ought to answer each person. (Colossians 4:5-6)

General Election: An SDLP Future?

It can be easy to feel sorry for the SDLP candidate standing in the General Election in the East Belfast constituency. In an area which is resoundingly unionist, you might almost think 'what's the point of standing?' Yet fair play to Mary Muldoon. Her campaign literature arrived in the post yesterday, so she shall be my fourth review today, leaving the TUV for tomorrow and Sinn Fein if we receive any before Saturday.

Compared to the big booklets and huge folded sheets of other candidates, Muldoon isn't spending much on her campaign literature. One glossy A5 sheet with picture and slogan on one side, and some blurb on the other. The battle Muldoon faces isn't so much to win the seat, but rather seems to be worded to reflect the battle within the nationalist and republican community: 'It is vital to vote in this election and to vote for an honest voice who will take their seat and represent the people of East Belfast.'

Following some biographical information, mostly on her experience in Belfast City Council, there are also the promises of what she will do if elected. That's a big 'if' - perhaps emphasized by the exclamation marks at the end of each pledge: e.g. 'I will oppose cuts to the NI Budget to ensure funding for Hospitals and Schools!' I'm not sure if those exclamation marks are well chosen, but they are perhaps the most enthusiastic of the election promises being made by any of the candidates thus far.

Because there isn't a great deal of detail on her campaign literature, it's harder to discuss it and pick faults, but perhaps what is worth noting is that she firmly comes out against the runway extension at the City Airport - the most open statement I've seen on the issue.

As well as the writing on the back of the sheet, there's also the obligatory pictures, so we see Mary with a constituent when she was canvassing during her last election run out (which must have been the 2007 Assembly election), one with new party leader Margaret Ritchie, and one down in Titanic Quarter in which one of the Harland and Wolff cranes makes an appearance.

Again, social media isn't being widely used in East Belfast, indeed there isn't even any contact information at all (apart from that required by the legislation of printer and publisher/promoter).

Not much detail, but then, to be fair, her candidature will help the overall performance of the SDLP in terms of vote share (being the only party standing candidates in each constituency), but not much chance of taking the seat.

General Election: DUP2Win?

In the third of my reviews of the General Election literature in the East Belfast constituency, we turn our attention to the sitting MP, Peter Robinson, who on top of his Westminster job continues to be an MLA and First Minister of Northern Ireland.

Three jobs would seem to be a lot for anyone, but there's no signs that Peter Robinson will step down from one or other of his seats if elected to Parliament again. This despite the recent scandals, and ongoing questions surrounding the transfer of some land in our village of Dundonald. Robinson has been under pressure recently, and perhaps it's being worked out in the way his campaign team are failing to engage with the electorate.

On Monday night I was sitting in the house, with one ear listening for the doorbell announcing some canvassers visiting. Instead, the DUP team were very quickly slipping the election communication through the letterbox and moving on - without ringing doorbells or knocking the doors. No attempt at all to speak with potential voters. I even went out to the door, and the guys say me, but hurried on their way. Not exactly a positive sign, unless they presumptively imagine that my part of Dundonald is either going to automatically vote for him, or is a lost cause so they just want to get their information out without causing a scene.

So as to the information itself, there's quite a bit of it, contained in an 8 page A5 booklet (which also contained an A5 4 page flyer for the local council candidate in the by-election caused by Iris Robinson's resignation). 7 pictures of Peter, so I think Trevor Ringland is still winning for most pictures of himself. Despite being the sitting MP, Robinson seems to be under pressure in the booklet, coming out fighting with material on the expenses scandal in page 2, quoting Sir Thomas Legge who gave him a clean bill of health.

The fight continues on pages 3, 6 and 7, where Peter the fighter is presented positively compared to 'a novice' given his personal experience in those multi-tasking jobs we've mentioned previously, as well as comparing the DUP to other unionist parties in the areas of unionist unity, strong positive leadership, representing unionism and with long-term strategy. Having seen campaign leaflets from other constituencies, these sections are the same across the board, with just some special East Belfast and Peter Robinson sections where the local candidate is introduced in each constituency.

However it's interesting that unionist unity is now presented as a key concern, whenever the DUP are the largest unionist party. If memory serves correctly, they were less keen on unionist unity when they were the smaller unionist party, on the hardline fringe of things. However now that there's a possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister in the next Assembly they're very concerned to protect their position, especially since the TUV has comfortably moved into the gap left when when DUP shifted into government with the Shinners.

As with some of the other candidates in East Belfast, there does appear to be some confusion as to what the election is all about, with the issues discussed in the Assembly being referred to as if they are the main thing, rather than the particular issues concerning Westminster.

Again, there are no references to Twitter or Facebook or such things, and the only website link is to dup2win.com which has been on the go for many years, and didn't seem to have individual pages for each of the candidates standing in the election.

Time will tell if Peter Robinson will still be MP for East Belfast come the 7th May. It's hard to tell at this stage how the unionist vote will split, and how many votes will be lost to the Conservatives and Unionists, and the TUV. Alliance are also talking up their chances, but as I've said before, I can't seem Naomi Long winning through.

DUP2win? We'll see.

General Election: Alliance for All?

The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland's candidate in the East Belfast constituency is current Lord Mayor of Belfast, Naomi Long. However, I'm not sure that she actually wants my vote.

You see, her recent election communication came through the post, and was only addressed to my good lady wife. So maybe I shouldn't even be reviewing it, seeing as I didn't get one myself!

Much smaller than the Conservative and Unionist candidate's paper, Long's is an A4 glossy sheet (carbon neutral, we're assured), folded into three. Just three pictures of Naomi, a portrait, one at the Tall Ships Festival, and one with her fellow Alliance candidates (or is it their MLAs?)

As with their election posters, Alliance are working through a series of contrasts - sharing works, segregation costs; partnership works, deadlock costs; justice works, crime costs; respect works, bigotry costs. Given that Alliance currently don't have any MPs, they instead choose to focus on the things that they're doing in the Northern Ireland Assembly for us, which, while possibly interesting, aren't really the things that are at stake in this election. (Like other parties, perhaps they need a basic education in the different decision-making bodies and which powers are enjoyed by Councils/Assembly/Westminster.

There is also quite a lot on the person and experience of Naomi Long, who perhaps has an even higher profile at present thanks to her time in the Lord Mayor's chair in Belfast City Council. Perhaps this is the reason she's standing, to ride high on the publicity generated from her Council job - but with no word within the literature that she would give up her Council and Assembly seats if elected to Westminster.

She also includes sections in Chinese and Polish, to reach the local ethnic communities - perhaps something unique for the Alliance party in this campaign? However, there is just the general Alliance website, with no reference of an address, email address, Facebook or Twitter at all. Indeed, it took a bit of searching to find out anything about the election, as the Elections section on the website is from the 2005 elections!

There is one possibly misleading section which seems to inflate her chances of winning the election, on a dubious political premise. I'll quote the section, then take it apart.

"Your vote is crucial. This is the most open Westminster contest in East Belfast in a generation but if you want change, only Alliance can deliver. Naomi was elected 52 votes behind Peter Robinson and over 1400 votes ahead of Reg Empey in the last Assembly election. Alliance can win in East Belfast, but your support is crucial. On the 6th May, make your vote work for you. Vote Alliance."

On the face of it, Naomi only needs 53 more people to vote for her and she would take the seat. That sounds doable, doesn't it? Except it's not quite as it seems. Either Alliance don't understand statistics and election results, or else they are deliberately using them in this way to present a false impression.

You see, while Naomi was just 52 votes behind Peter Robinson himself, in the constituency of East Belfast, for their three candidates combined, the DUP received 11,155 first preference votes. (Peter Robinson got 5635, Wallace Browne got 3185, and Robin Newton 2335). Alliance has one candidate, Naomi Long, who received 5583 votes. That is, just about half the number of DUP first preference votes, or 5572 votes behind. That's a lot more than just the 52 votes being presented in the campaign literature.

Indeed, taken as a whole, while Naomi Long's personal first preferences outweighed Reg Empey's, the UUP as a whole (with three candidates and a poor balancing of first preferences across the constituency) received 6516 first preferences. That is, 933 more than Alliance. So Naomi Long and Alliance come into this General Election in third place, with a long way to go to beat the Conservatives and Unionists, let alone the DUP.

Her best chance may come if thousands defect from the DUP to the TUV and UCUNF, so that the three unionist parties are fairly evenly split, and she sneaks ahead by a couple of votes. Otherwise, despite this bigging up of her chances, I think it's safe to say Long won't be heading to Westminster, unless on a holiday.

General Election: Ringland for Change?

This is the first in a series of intended impartial reviews of the election literature received for the East Belfast constituency in the General Election of 2010. Hopefully as the series progresses this week we will actually receive the election communications from the other parties...

The Conservatives and Unionist Candidate is high-profile former British and Irish Lion rugby player, Trevor Ringland. His glossy A3 campaign literature was the first received in our neck of the woods, and the only doorstep caller thus far in the election. Change is the big word, both on the title page, and throughout the literature.

Through a series of short articles and soundbites, the Conservative and Unionist priorities are discussed. First up, a message from David Cameron and Sir Reg Empey, which doesn't say much, and emphasises the fact that Northern Ireland's voice can finally be heard in Westminster through the introduction of 'normal' politics via the Conservatives. The other boxes talk about economics, jobs, reducing sectarianism, and 'helping those who need help most'. (Is that a split infinitive?)

Perhaps the most recurring theme is the series of photos of Trevor Ringland in various places within East Belfast. Despite his attempts to vary the photos (some with jacket on, or off), it seems that he took about ten minutes to drive round certain parts of the constituency and get his (sometimes poor) photograph taken at the locations. So, Trevor at Harland and Wolff, Trevor at the Odyssey, Trevor at the Science Park in the Titanic Quarter, Trevor at the City Airport, Trevor talking to two Chinese (tourists?) at the Titanic Pump House, Trevor at a wee shop at the bottom of the Newtownards Road, Trevor slightly further up the Newtownards Road at the East Belfast Mission.

Perhaps these are the recognisable shots of East Belfast, but has he forgotten that Dundonald has been added to his constituency? Not to mention the rest of the Newtownards Road, through Ballyhackamore, Knock, Belmont, and so on...

There seemed to be a few clumsy moments. "A Northern Ireland for all inside a United Kingdom for all, while co-operating constructively for our mutual benefit with the others we share this island with." That last phrase doesn't seem to sit well - is there a 'with' too many?

Or consider perhaps the most ambiguous piece of diplomacy when talking about the Geroge Best Belfast City Airport:

"The airport contributes to the economy of East Belfast, but the needs of the travelling public must be balanced with the rights of local residents."

So are you in favour of the extension of the runway or not, Trevor? Should we seek to expand the economy, create jobs, as you write elsewhere, or do you not want to press that for fear of losing votes from the flightpath of the airport - hence all the photos of you down at the bottom of the Newtownards Road?

Finally, there were big sections on how to contact Trevor, and a space to write your comments or questions. New technologies and social media being used by this Conservative and Unionist candidate are Facebook and Twitter.

Trevor presents a well-crafted local perspective, although he may have a hard job trying to unseat Peter Robinson.

So Long, Strangford; 'Ello East Belfast!

We're now in the run-up to the General Election on 6th May, and candidates have a few days left to decide if they're standing. This is our first General Election since we moved home, and already we're on the move again.

Up to now, Dundonald was part of the Strangford constituency (formerly represented by Iris Robinson MP), but before we get a chance to vote on Iris' replacement, we've been moved into her husband's constituency, East Belfast due to the boundary changes. Both Dundonald and the surrounding wards have been added to East Belfast, so as well as getting to know the constituency (which stretches from the Odyssey to Ballybeen), we'll have a new bunch of candidates to get to know.

Following the deadline of 20th April I'll have a full list of candidates, but for now, those confirmed include under pressure First Minister Peter Robinson (DUP), Trevor Ringland (UCUNF), David Vance (TUV), Naomi Long (Alliance), Mary Muldoon (SDLP) and Niall O Donnghaile (Sinn Fein).

Euro Election First Preferences

The BBC have just reported on the first preference votes from the Northern Ireland constituency European Election count:

Stephen Agnew, Green Party - 15,764
Jim Allister, Traditional Unionist Voice - 66,197
Bairbre De Brun, Sinn Fein - 126,184
Diane Dodds, DUP - 88,346
Alban Maginness, SDLP - 78,489
Jim Nicholson, Ulster Conservative and Unionist - 82,893
Ian Parsley, Alliance - 26,699
Quota: 121,144

Sinn Fein comfortably topped the poll, and gain the first seat, and it looks like both Dodds (DUP) and Nicholson (UUP) will be elected in the later rounds of the count.

Some initial thoughts:

Jim Allister has polled extremely well, and will be confident of gaining a number of seats in the next Stormont Assembly election. The media are reporting his considerable share of votes as a protest against the DUP, but they could also be the result of people voting for a consistent hard-working MEP for Northern Ireland.

This should be a warning for the DUP, who appear to be moving away from their traditional ground of being the protest vote, and are maturing into government with Sinn Fein. Despite their rhetoric of controlling Sinn Fein, a sizeable proportion of previous DUP voters have abandoned them in this election - and will worry them if this continues in future elections.

If this pattern was repeated in an Assembly election, then Sinn Fein would have the right of nomination of the First Minister, and the DUP would be nominated for Deputy First Minister. Perhaps because of this possibility, such a vote would not be repeated in Assembly elections. The fear among Unionists of having a Shinner as First Minister of Northern Ireland might convince many to vote DUP to prevent this. Although that remains to be seen.

European Election: The Candidates

Tomorrow, a small proportion of the populace of the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote in the election to the European Parliament. It is expected that the turnout will be quite low, so why should we go out to vote? Here's a brief summary of the candidates and their election communications, but the end decision is up to you!

In alphabetical order of candidate:


Steven Agnew, Green Party. For a Green New Deal. As you would expect from the Greens, their communication comes on recycled paper, as part of a carbon neutral publication. Their policies are towards being better environmentally, but it isn't clear how this directly impacts on the European Parliament. Rather, they seem like sensible things that could be done whether he is elected or not - and probably should be initiated by the Northern Ireland Assembly, rather than his one voice amongst a European Parliament of 736 members.

There seems to be a good online presence, with links to his own site, the Green Party site, as well as badges for Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Bebo and Myspace. It's interesting to see that his election communication is targeted to specific constituencies - ours is for Strangford, Lagan Valley and Newry & Armagh. Is this one different to one being received in East Belfast, and if not, then is it 'Green' to produce lots of different versions rather than producing one Northern Ireland-wide version?


Jim Allister QC MEP, Traditional Unionist Voice. Experience, Principle, Integrity. One of the sitting MEPs, Allister makes the most of this as he highlights his record during the last Parliament - 228 speeches, 46 oral questions and 214 written questions. The other two Northern Ireland MEPs don't come close even when you combine their results. As well as the European issues, Allister is pushing for this to be treated as a referendum on the DUP - Sinn Fein joint government, and providing the opportunity for people to object to terrorists in government. His communication is probably the most useful, in reminding voters what they need to bring to vote, and in providing transport for those who need it.

Jim is also sensible in pushing for two unionist MEPs to be returned through the wise use of transfers, although there are plenty of digs and sniping at his former colleagues in the DUP. Interestingly, while the Conservatives have a candidate in this election, several sitting Conservative MEPs have endorsed Allister as the best candidate - Daniel Hannon MEP and Roger Helmer MEP. A lot more material is covered, but then his communication leaflet runs to 8 pages. Not so much social networking here, just a link to his own website, and the TUV website.


Bairbre De Brun MEP, Sinn Fein. Putting Ireland First. Short, sharp and to the point, in this small bi-lingual communication. Just a few paragraphs in both English and Irish, and some pictures of the candidate. Only one link, to her election site.


Diane Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party. Strong Leadership in Challenging Times. Beside her photo, on the front there's also a blue bubble which proclaims 'The only unionist who can top the poll, which is then repeated in various formats throughout the rest of the four pages. The DUP seems to be fixated with topping the poll, and preventing Jim Allister, or Bairbre Dr Brun from collecting the most first preferences. It's sad really, to see them concentrating on something that doesn't actually matter. Maybe the DUP don't understand elections and how they work, but the end result in a Single Transferable Vote Proportional Representation election (PR-STV) is not coming first, but reaching the quota. It can happen that, for example, where there are three seats and 6 or 7 candidates that the person who comes in third with 1st preferences is beaten by the 4th ranking candidate after the first round, simply because they gain more transfers from winning candidates or those who have been eliminated.

But on with the analysis of their communication. On the inside pages, there are three columns of reasons to vote for Dodds, 22 in total. It's only in the third column that they actually get round to talking about what the election is about - only three of the 22 are about Europe and European policy. It seems that the DUP is fighting the wrong battle - it's as if they have already begun campaigning for the Stormont Assembly elections in the wrong year!

The DUP are also providing assistance to get to the polling stations, and remind voters to bring identification with them. There's an online presence, at the old dup2win site, as well as Facebook, Flickr and Twitter.

While not within the scope of this blog, Sunday's The Politics Show might be influential for many unionists in making their final decision. Allister and Dodds were fighting tooth and nail, with Dodds coming across as ill-informed, nasty and rude. de Brun was sitting between them looking bemused for most of the time, probably smiling on the inside at the war within unionism.


Alban Maginness, Social Democratic and Labour Party.When We Win, You Win. The SDLP are, according to their material, the only major party in the North which is pro-Europe. The communication is strongly focused on European issues, and highlights the party's links to one of the bigger groupings within the Parliament. As well as a profile of Maginness, there are also mini-interviews with 'ordinary' voters from across the province.

Their leaflet is also carbon neutral, reminds voters of what they need to vote, and mentions Alban's two election sites, Facebook, YouTube, Flickr and Twitter. The back cover also has his election slogan in four languages for a bit of multi-cultural outreach.


Jim Nicholson MEP, Conservatives and Unionists: A New Force. Vote For Change. This may not have been the best slogan within the Northern Ireland context, given that Nicholson has been a sitting MEP for twenty years now. Will the change be him losing his seat?

With the UUP's merger with the Conservative Party, Jim's election material has a more UK-wide feel, with attacks on the Labour Party Government as the brochure is opened. There are also Northern Ireland specific sections, relating to farming, business and community affairs, but in each, the message is that Jim will work with his Conservative candidates in the European Parliament. Would that be the same colleagues who are endorsing a rival candidate?

Just one link to a website, and no social networking, but theirs is the only election broadcast which came personalised, specifically addressed to me. Does that count for something?


Ian Parsley, Alliance Party of Northern Ireland. Replace the politics of fear with the politics of hope. The communication continues in the same vein, with the comparisons between what works and what costs. The environment, business and European democracy are issues that are highlighted. Surprisingly there are no links to any websites, nor even a phone number for people to contact to find out more information.

It will be interesting to see how the election results shape up, and may give an indication of how future Assembly and Westminster elections will go. The important thing is that everyone uses their second, third, fourth preferences to help with transfers, rather than stopping at 1st preference, no matter who it's cast for!

McFlurry's McLinks (2)

With encouragement from Daniel, I'm going to stick with McFlurry's McLinks. So here's another batch of cool reads for you to go and check out.

Politics is big in the news at present, with the current expenses scandal at Westminster, James Cary thinks about leadership.

And, while there's tonnes of election discussion and debate going on at Slugger O'Toole, I preferred Dave Wiggins' guide to the European Election Candidates.

Several new blogs have recently emerged, one from Phil Howe, who thought about the false gospel of rules, rules, rules. The other isn't a blog about mathematical multiplication frustration, despite its name being Flippin Tables.

In this week when the Church of Scotland General Assembly will hear an appeal against the Presbytery of Aberdeen inducting a minister living in a homosexual relationship, the Fellowship of Confessing Churches has been gathering support.

On the same theme, Kevin DeYoung has posted an analysis of the liberal strategy, entitled Death by Dialogue, as the introduction to a sermon on Leviticus 18 which is being posted in four sections: sexual sin, homosexual activity, God's holiness, and the application.

And for some light relief, there's a Lot of truth in this cartoon.

The New Moderator-Designate

Our Presbyterian brothers and sisters were voting last night in Presbyteries across the island for the next Moderator of the Presbyterian Church in Ireland. Yesterday, Alan in Belfast had made a prediction of how the media make a moderator. His prediction was right, and Rev Stafford Carson of 1st Portadown has been duly elected as Moderator-Designate.

Stafford came to public recognition when there was a disagreement between the two Presbyterian Churches in Portadown over admittance to the pulpit of his church. Is this the Presbyterian Church giving him tacit approval for his stand of conscience against women ministers? Time will tell. It should be an interesting year for him, and for PCI as a whole.

Good to see where his focus lies though - not on quarrels or dissensions, but on the Gospel: "I hope I can be a real encourager to the church and help it through what are really difficult times," he said. "But yet in the midst of all this to remain confident and be confident in the gospel, and continue to speak and live the gospel in a way which is real and relevant." This from the BBC News report.

Irish Blog Awards 2009

Nominations are now open for the 2009 Irish Blog Awards. If there are blogs that you like in the categories listed (no religious blog category this year), then make your voice heard. But hurry, nominations close on 14th January.

Election Day

The day has finally arrived. Election Day in the USA. After a mammoth campaign which has lasted almost two years, the American public get to decide (indirectly, thanks to their Electoral College presidential election system) who will be the next resident of the White House. Will it be Obama or McCain?

Watching the election coverage, and listening to the radio, it's as if Obama is being hailed as the Messiah that America needs. Last night on Evening Extra on Radio Ulster, there was an interview with a guy from Belfast who is over in America working for the Barak Obama campaign team. Words used included inspiring, the man for the job, the man to bring change...

The question is, will the people who have said they're voting Democrat for Obama actually follow through when they get to the polling booth? We've seen it in Northern Ireland elections, where people may say one thing to polling canvassers and quite another when they get into the polling booth with the voting paper in their hand.

We're in for an interesting couple of days as the results come through.

Your Votes Please!

Don't worry, I'm not writing about the forthcoming Dromore by-election. Rather, I'm asking if you could help out a friend's wife by voting for her to get a record contract?

Mel Wiggins is an amazing singer, and is currently in the running for a recording budget of £15,000. To help her bid it's really simple - it will take about 5 minutes. You just have to go to Slice The Pie, sign up for a free account, then go to the Showcases button on the menu bar at the top. From there, it's in the 'All Genres 2' competition, and Mel appears in the list. You can hear three of her songs to hear how brilliant she is, then give her your vote!

It would be brilliant if you could do this - at present (about halfway through the competition) she is in second place with 15% of the votes, and the leaders have 16%. There are 12 days left to vote, so get your skates on!!!

For more information, you can see Dave's blog, Mel's blog, or the competition site itself.

Election Predictions

If you're particularly interested in the Assembly Election on Wednesday, then why not have a go at predicting the outcome? Nicholas Whyte, on his excellent election website is again running his predictions competition. You can find it here. If you want, you can even leave your (officially entered) predictions in a comment here, and the 'winning' candidate in my commenters (according to Nicholas' own results) may even received a special prize! Entries close at the close of polling 2200 on Wednesday night.

Electoral Videos

As you may be aware, we have the Assembly Elections coming up on 7th March 2007 in Northern Ireland. To some extent, it's being seen as a referendum on the St Andrew's Agreement, and could see power-sharing between the DUP and Sinn Fein. It seems that the parties are tapping into popular culture, using blogs and even YouTube to get their message across.

First up, Peter Robinson has started a daily webcast video on YouTube. This is quite a step forward, with Robinson attempting to explain why the DUP are the party to support through the medium of internet video. Also from the DUP, check out the Lagan Valley candidates out canvassing in Lisburn. The Green Party has also got in on the act - here, you can see the North Down candidate's video.

Also, check out the Voice4Democracy blog, supported by people who are opposing the DUP in this election, and who are unhappy with the prospect of terrorists in government. Some interesting reading, and check out the videos of DUP Executive candidates entering the Executive meeting - how they blank the victims' representatives.

For me, it's going to be a postal vote from Dublin as I won't be home for it. So decision time will be sooner than March 7th!

Election Results Part Three

The election results are now in for the councils, and it has been an interesting time. Again, the trend has seen huge swings towards the DUP, and to a lesser extent, to Sinn Fein. For the DUP to gain an extra 51 seats in the councils (particularly their performance in Lisburn) was a tremendous achievement, and, I think, gives a more accurate picture of the opinion in Northern Ireland than the Westminster election, which can be skewed by tactical voting.

Closer to home, in Banbridge Council, the DUP has become the largest party. However, Sinn Fein have now taken their first seat in the council, despite targetting two seats. Obviously, despite their agitation by Paul Butler in recent years, the good people of Dromore have shunned Sinn Fein.

So where do we go from here? The indications are that we won't ever again elect 582 councillors, as the next elections will be to a smaller number of councils, taking in a wider area. Therefore, the big issue could be the boundaries of these new local authorities. Will Banbridge council be consumed by Newry, or by Armagh (or both together), or by Craigavon? Could Dromore be separated from Banbridge and be consumed by Lisburn? We await the decision of the review body with interest...